An Estimate of the J1b Age

An estimate of the J1b cluster’s age according to Professor Anatole Klyosov

Cluster A
001_Portugal 13 22 15 11 12 20 11 16 11 13 11 30
005_Brazil 13 22 16 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 29
007_Belgium 13 22 15 10 11 17 11 15 12 13 11 29
009_Azores 13 22 15 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 29
010_Spain 13 22 15 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 29
012_Brazil 13 22 15 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 29
013_Ferrere 13 22 15 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 30

The J1b cluster of 7 haplotypes should give the following time span to the common ancestor: 1725+/-570 years.
This standard deviation was calculated here based on a number of mutations and the margin of error for the mutation rate

Now there’s another complete Iranian haplotype from the SMGF database, so we have 8 haplotypes in that J1b cluster A
SMGF – Iran -13-22-15-10-12-20-11-16-11-13-11-29

Cluster B
Qatar 12 -23-14-10-13-19-16-11-13-11-29-17-14-20-11-22-22-15-10-21
Qatar 12- 23-14-10-13-17-16-11-13-11-31-17-14-20-12-22-22-15-10-20
Qatar 12-23-14-11-13-19-16-11-13-11-30-18-14-20-11-22-22-14-10-21

The tree Qatar haplotypes have a common ancestor 2425+/-840 years ago. Such a margin of error is explained by a poor statistics, only three haplotypes.

Yes, it is possible to make an estimate. These two clusters have the following alleles in the 11 markers they both have (A and B, respectively):

13 22 15 10 12 19 X 16 11 13 11 29
12 23 14 10 13 19 X 16 11 13 11 30

Hence, there are 5 mutations between them. This brings their common ancestor to 5700+/-1000 years ago.

New, completely different Qatari J1b cluster

A Qatari J1b cluster was shown in the new article of Sergio Tofanelli,
"J1-M267 Y lineage marks climate-driven pre-historical human displacements". Supplementary Information. 282 M267* chromosomes from 29 populations typed at 20 YSTRs and 6 SNPs.
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg200958s1.html?url=/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ejhg200958a.html

Unfortunately they haven't tested the P58 SNP.
Only 3 J1b haplotypes (all in Qatar) were found in this extensive study.

The Qatari J1b cluster is completely different from the previously known J1b STR's.
The genetic distance of the haplotypes among the Qatari J1b cluster is 20/4 and 20/6, what probably means a long established group in that place.
Curiously the Qatari haplotypes are closer to other J1e (P58) and even to some J2 haplotypes than to the already known J1b haplotypes.

If the results are correct J1b M365 is far older and far diverse than I thought and it's impossible to estimate the J1b candidates only analyzing the STR or the haplotypes motifs because the Qatari J1b is completely different from the previously known Eastern Anatolian-Caspian Iranian-Portuguese (Alan ?) J1b cluster original motif.

J1b Qatari haplotypes
http://tinyurl.com/da2vdo

J1b Eastern Anatolian-Caspian Iranian-Portuguese haplotypes and candidates:
http://tinyurl.com/b8tds9