A new methodology of estimating ancient or medieval "Invaders" Y DNA in Europe

The recent article “Moors and Saracens in Europe: estimating the medieval North African male legacy in southern Europe” (Capelli et al - European Journal of Human Genetics (2009), 1 – 5) proposes a methodology: “So, considering 9 loci and 40 generations (approximately 1200 years ago with a 31-year generation length14), either 0 or 1 mutational difference is the most likely consequence. Two mutations are only slightly less likely, but overlap with other much more ancient events, for example 80 generations or 2400 years ago. Posterior distributions for more ancient events have probability peaks centred on a higher number of differences, with 0–1 mutations being extremely unlikely (data not shown). Therefore, following this, European Y chromosomes within the three haplogroups identical to, or with one mutational difference from, NW African STR haplotypes were considered compatible with an MNA (medieval Northern African) ancestry. In Iberia and peninsular Italy, they account for 90, 78 and 42% of the E1b1b1b, E1b1b1a-b and J1 chromosomes respectively”.
(9 STR loci - DYS19, DYS389 I–II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DSY393, and the bi-allelic DYS385)

Historically introduced NW African types in Italy and Iberia
Frequencies of E1b1b1b chromosomes with 0-1-steps neighbour chromosome within the NW African dataset.
The database included 127 Berbers from Tunisia; 102 South Tunisians; 109 Moroccan Arab and Berber speakers; 50 Moroccan and 52 Tunisians (unpublished data)

Region – n - %
1 Val Badia 34 - 0.0
2 Veneto 55 - 1.8
3 Central Emilia 62 - 0.0
4 Central-Tuscany 41 - 0.0
5 Tuscany-Latium border 79 - 0.0
6 North-East Latium 55 - 1.8 .
7 Marche 221 - 0.0
8 South Latium 51 - 0.0
9 East Campania 84 - 2.4
10 North-West Apulia 46 - 4.3
11 Lucera 60 - 1.7
12 West Calabria 56 - 0.0
13 South Apulia 71 - 0.0
Peninsular Italy 915 - 0.8
14 Sicily 93 - 2.2
15 Portugal 659 - 5.0
16 Galicia 292 - 4.1
17 Cantabria 161 - 13.0
18 Basques 168 - 0.6
19 Basques 43 - 2.3
20 Catalans 16 - 0.0
21 Andalusians 37 - 5.4
Total Spain 717 - 5.2
Total Iberia 1376 - 5.1

Data not shown in the article but we can use YHRD.
In the case of E1b1b1b M 81+
13-14-30-24-9-11-13-13,14
285 matching haplotypes !

36 of 109
Belgium [Moroccan Berber]
19 of 31
Zriba, Tunisia [Tunisian]
17 of 1177
Antioquia, Colombia [Mestizo]
15 of 792
Central Portugal [Portuguese]
11 of 130
Rabat, Morocco [Arabs]
11 of 102
Oran, Algeria [Arab]
11 of 1237
United States [Hispanic American]
10 of 387
Andalucía/Extremadura, Spain [Spanish]
9 of 654
Buenos Aires, Argentina [European]
9 of 132
Tunisia [Andalusian Arab]
6 of 566
Northern Portugal [Portuguese]
5 of 152
New York City, United States [Hispanic American]
4 of 32
Pennsylvania, United States [Hispanic American]
4 of 255
Rio Grande Do Sul, Brazil [European]
4 of 69
Rabat, Morocco [Berber]
4 of 447
Sao Paulo, Brazil [European]
4 of 155
Sfax, Tunisia [Tunisian]
4 of 152
Madrid, Spain [Spanish]
4 of 53
Connecticut, United States [Hispanic American]
4 of 245
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [European]
4 of 101
Cantabria, Spain [Spanish]
4 of 311
Peru [Mestizo]
3 of 63
Tripolis, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya [Libyan]
3 of 135
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [African]
3 of 30
Tunisia [Berber]
3 of 61
Marche, Italy [Moroccan]
3 of 365
Mendoza, Argentina [European]
2 of 212
Costa Rica [Mestizo]
2 of 201
Somalia [Somali]
2 of 52
Sohag, Upper Egypt [Egyptian]
2 of 52
Figuig, Morocco [Berber]
2 of 103
Santiago de Compostela, Spain [Spanish]
2 of 74
Texas, United States [Hispanic American]
2 of 314
Sicily, Italy [Italian]
2 of 46
Virginia, United States [Hispanic American]
2 of 95
Nariño, Colombia [Mestizo]
2 of 91
Cauca, Colombia [Mestizo]
2 of 68
Azores, Portugal [Portuguese]
2 of 68
Illinois, United States [Hispanic American]
2 of 224
Barcelona, Spain [Spanish]
2 of 61
Marche, Italy [Tunisian]
2 of 123
Nicaragua [Mestizo]
2 of 224
Rio Negro, Argentina [European]
1 of 46
Zeeland, Netherlands [Dutch]
1 of 113
Belgium [Flemish]
1 of 125
Lyon, France [French]
1 of 120
Zaragoza, Spain [Spanish]
1 of 52
Qena, Upper Egypt [Egyptian]
1 of 91
Majorca, Spain [Spanish]
1 of 62
Caracas, Venezuela [Mestizo]
1 of 324
Chihuahua, Mexico [Mestizo]
1 of 147
Bogotá, Colombia [Mestizo]
1 of 108
Chubut, Argentina [European]
1 of 70
Assiut, Upper Egypt [Egyptian]
1 of 108
Cape Town, South Africa [European Afrikaner]
1 of 34
Cundinamarca, Colombia [Mestizo]
1 of 112
Southern Portugal [Portuguese]
1 of 20
Sciacca, Italy [Italian]
1 of 90
Asturias, Spain [Spanish]
1 of 384
Ravenna, Italy [Italian]
1 of 71
Atlántico, Colombia [Mestizo]
1 of 40
Sao Paulo State, Brazil [African]
1 of 46
Porto Alegre, Brazil [European]
1 of 433
Freiburg, Germany [German]
1 of 1276
United States [African American]
1 of 66
Sao Paulo State, Brazil [European]
1 of 53
Olomouc, Czech Republic [Czech]
1 of 99
Strasbourg, France [French]
1 of 54
Tunis, Tunisia [Tunisian]
1 of 199
Valencia, Spain [Spanish]
1 of 23
Florida, United States [Hispanic American]
1 of 909
Finland [Finnish]
1 of 120
Quito, Ecuador [Mestizo]
1 of 168
Northern Spain [Basque]
1 of 98
Madeira, Portugal [Portuguese]
1 of 42
Oregon, United States [Hispanic American]
1 of 29
Ragusa, Italy [Italian]
1 of 281
Munich, Germany [German]
1 of 243
Rostock, Germany [German]
1 of 134
Pyrenees, Spain [Spanish]
1 of 215
Novi Sad, Serbia [Serbian]
1 of 134
Choco, Colombia [African]


The same methodology can be applied to the YHRD results for the “J1b modal haplotype candidates”, the presumed “Western Alan Modal haplotype”
(9 STR loci - DYS19, DYS389 I–II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DSY393, and the bi-allelic DYS385)

15-13-29-22-10-11-13-12,20
1 of 47 Rasht, Iran, [Gilaki] Eurasian - Indo-Iranian - Asia

Differences with 0-1 mutation in this extremely rare haplotype, one of the smallest clades found in Europe:

15-13-29-22-10-11-13-12,19
2 of 68 Azores, Portugal [Portuguese] Eurasian - European - Western European - European
1 of 135 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [African] African, Afro-American – Latin America
1 of 111 Turkey, Kahramanmaras, Southern Turkey [Romani] Eurasian - Indo Iranian – Asia

15-13-29-22-10-11-12-12,20
1 of 91 Caceres, Spain [Spanish] Eurasian – European – Western European – Europe
A new haplotype found in the YHRD database. Caceres is very close to the Portuguese border and was part of the old Roman Lusitania. (Catálogo Monumental de Caceres - “ocupada por Alanos”).

We can even imagine that the Alans ride from the Caucasus to Lusitania, as an ethos or an attitude, would be resumed after some centuries and would go on over the Atlantic and would continue in the Brazilian wilderness with the Bandeirantes, century by century !
Invaders in Europe, Invaders in America
Entre Conquistadores !