An Estimate of the J1b Age

An estimate of the J1b cluster’s age according to Professor Anatole Klyosov

Cluster A
001_Portugal 13 22 15 11 12 20 11 16 11 13 11 30
005_Brazil 13 22 16 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 29
007_Belgium 13 22 15 10 11 17 11 15 12 13 11 29
009_Azores 13 22 15 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 29
010_Spain 13 22 15 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 29
012_Brazil 13 22 15 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 29
013_Ferrere 13 22 15 10 12 19 11 16 11 13 11 30

The J1b cluster of 7 haplotypes should give the following time span to the common ancestor: 1725+/-570 years.
This standard deviation was calculated here based on a number of mutations and the margin of error for the mutation rate

Now there’s another complete Iranian haplotype from the SMGF database, so we have 8 haplotypes in that J1b cluster A
SMGF – Iran -13-22-15-10-12-20-11-16-11-13-11-29

Cluster B
Qatar 12 -23-14-10-13-19-16-11-13-11-29-17-14-20-11-22-22-15-10-21
Qatar 12- 23-14-10-13-17-16-11-13-11-31-17-14-20-12-22-22-15-10-20
Qatar 12-23-14-11-13-19-16-11-13-11-30-18-14-20-11-22-22-14-10-21

The tree Qatar haplotypes have a common ancestor 2425+/-840 years ago. Such a margin of error is explained by a poor statistics, only three haplotypes.

Yes, it is possible to make an estimate. These two clusters have the following alleles in the 11 markers they both have (A and B, respectively):

13 22 15 10 12 19 X 16 11 13 11 29
12 23 14 10 13 19 X 16 11 13 11 30

Hence, there are 5 mutations between them. This brings their common ancestor to 5700+/-1000 years ago.